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How Google will end Microsoft desktop dominance
Posted: 10:04 am
December 15th, 2005
Post a comment
IT Business, IT Culture

Title like that will surely bring in at least a dozen Microsoft emails, which is the norm anytime I bring up something that negatively impacts Microsoft. This time folks its not me — it's Google. The remainder of this article is written from a standpoint of an MCSE, Microsoft Partner, Microsoft Certified Small Business Specialist and an ISV making some money off the Microsoft platform. Google's Aussie engineer Glen Murphy posted an insightful piece on his journey to Google and the atmosphere and people he works with today. If you read the article carefully you'll notice that there is a team of people at Google dedicated to working on a free web browser. In just five weeks upon his arrival the team he works on has immersed him in Firefox source and they managed to develop, approve, document and publish a stable extension to Firefox that allows for automatic blog comment retrieval of the page you are looking at. Similar to what Technorati search does, and similar to TheWorkingNetwork.com Stefan and Bob are working on at Microsoft. Find something interesting online, look at the status bar and see all the other bloggers comments on it. How is that for instant reputation and popularity indication? Quite similar to the project TheWorkingNetwork.com is up to but I have only met one human being that has heard of TheWorkingNetwork.com, while I had 16 messages in my inbox regarding this Google-Firefox plugin less than eight hours after its release. It's all about support, and doing as little of it as humanly possible. And therein lies the key to the end of Microsoft desktop dominance. No single vendor is capable of defeating Microsoft. No single body of standards, no government or continent can stop Microsoft from competing aggressively and pushing their agenda. I think they have realized that. Sorry IBM, cute commercials but I am not basing my applications on bloated middleware. Sorry Sun, here is your $2 billion, go die. Sorry Real Networks, even adult entertainment sites do not use your format anymore, and we all know that the adult entertainment industry only uses the best technology out there. Sorry Google, your search is nice but most of your traffic is still done on a Microsoft platform. I'm just handing out condolences today, I could go forever. But I'll stop here: Sorry Microsoft, but I think they've got it! I think that companies have finally realized that they alone cannot defeat Microsoft. So what they have started doing is putting their R&D resources behind popular open-source projects to bring them to the same feature level as Microsoft. Consumers love them, system administrators jump at the opportunity to use them, they are priced just right (free) and have huge networks of support. And support is key. By donating the code to the open and popular projects these companies drop off the liability, support and all the other hassle that gooes along with publishing software. IBM has lead the way in this, contributing both to Linux and to Apache in a very big way. There was a little bump in the road with SCO that many believe had a very nice backing by someone mentioned over and over in this article but the outcome was far from what they expected, I'm sure. It has lead to more corporate contributions into free software – operating systems, CRM, web browsers, web servers, office productivity software. Developers are creative creatures, every now and then they work on fun projects – so if company cannot make money by selling it, why not give it to some other popular project and gain a ton of goodwill? Well, it’s been going on for a while and lately in a very big way. IBM and Google are on the front lines of contributing code to projects that people are absolutely in love with. They are not stuck supporting them for 10+ years like Microsoft and I as an ISV know that my ability to compete with Microsoft in a software world is limited to Microsofts ignorance of my niche. Once Microsoft decides to move towards my audience, I'm dead. Same goes for Real, Intuit, IBM, Oracle, Google, Sony and any other company. Microsoft can outspend you, out-advertise you and even pretend to defeat you with an inferior product. So how do you fight it? So you want to kill Microsoft with a personal organizer? Killing it with a personal organizer, game console, crm or anything like that is like killing a dog by giving it a flea bath. Lets look at personal organizers, like Palm vs. Windows Mobile. These "me-too" Microsoft products have traditionally lost immense amounts of cash in hope of at least establishing presence in that sector. OVer time, they may become a dominant. Encourage third party vendors to support your software, sell devices with your productivity stuff on them while going deep into red. Now, why would a manufacturer back such an initiative with Microsoft? Because they know that there are only two Microsoft cash cows that will never go away: Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office. Those suites are where the Microsoft money is strongest at, and if your device plays with those you will have far better sales than if you back something that does not integrate with them well. Microsoft Pocket PC was a laughable proposition even a year ago because it required so many reboots and would require complete re-install if the battery ran down. Fast forward a few months to Windows Mobile 5 and its a dominant gadget on the market. Stable and people love it. The same way they love Firefox and Google. So if you're thinking about going up against Microsoft, using a PIM organizer approach may not be that brilliant of an idea. The key to destroying Microsoft is by attacking its cash cows (Windows, Office) and forcing it to defend its 90% market dominance without expanding into other segments. As the "desktop" becomes less and less prevalent platform and we move to the web (or web 2.0 if you like) the need for Microsoft Windows may not be that big. Can you tell a big difference between IE and Mozilla just by looking at how it renders a page? Not really. So if you do all your work on the web, who cares what is underneath it? It could be Linux. It could be OS X. If you're using only 5% of the features of your Office suite, is it worth $350 per seat to you? What if a free office suite (openoffice.org) were to provide your most used features along with the ability to view and edit Microsoft documents? Before you carve out the tombstone Now, sit back and look at your desktop. Are you running OpenOffice and Linux? According to the site stats for Vladville there is an 85% chance that you are not. Why not? Well, no reason to as of yet. So all things considered, it is up to Microsoft to shoot itself in the foot with what Vista and Office 12 bring to the table. Developers and ISV's are moving to the Web, as is Microsoft, so if Firefox and Google are more popular and moving in the same direction with free vs. Microsoft pricing, what will make you install Linux on your desktop? At this point, it’s really up to Microsoft to lose with how they roll out Vista. Just watch.

23 Comments

nathanmcallister |

Insightful, very insightful. I am not that familiar with Linux but everyone says its a great server. From what I’ve seen though, the workstation part is very solid and a very good opportunity for my customers.

As for OpenOffice – count me in the minority as I simply love it. Check out 2.0, it is much faster.



marshall |

Allow me to continue where you ended..

How Vista will fail to deliver
Anybody that has looked at Microsoft Vista beta will tell you one thing – bloated, overstimulated, eye-candy skin for XP and little else.

They are adding features as it moves through preview process but one thing that will most certainly be delivered is a bloated, memory and cpu resource intensive hog of an OS.

Linux can run like a rocket on a Celeron. Vista wants a 64bit with 2gb ram to run “comfortably”. I wonder which option people will demand with their computers, nothing like a business user waiting 10 minutes for their laptop to power on for a business presentation.

Look at Knoppix, Ubuntu, Gnoppix. I dare you to find must-have features you would pay $220 or more for a copy of XP Pro.



Amy |

Whats gotten into you, these long essays and such. Are you being paid per word? :)

Joke aside, very deep stuff. They will have to contribute a lot more to make it fight with Microsoft but as you said there isn’t really a whole lot we use inside Microsofts office suite so free replacement may not be a bad thing.

Keep it up Vlad, thank you!



jen |

Finally…a post I understand! This one actually makes sense to me. Very interesting point. Thanks, Vlad. You rock.



jen |

Oh, yeah. You need to enable the ability to leave Trackbacks. I just referenced you on my site.



Bob |

Dude, you are wicked smart.



george khamel |

I think this is the best competitive overview of Windows, Linux and open-source I’ve seen in a loooooooooooooooooong time. On the other hand, I get my info from SlashDot so nothing really new here but so very very detailed.

I’d duck though… Microsoft may be coming after you now.



clyde cindermann |

As long as Dell and HP and IBM and every other OEM push Windows XP on these systems, which they do because of immense cost of supporting another platform like Linux, there will be little to no inroads for people like Redhat or Novell to compete unless they support it on their own and make it look, feel and behave identical to the way Windows does.

Monopoly for Microsoft is granted but there are more pressing business concerns that keep Windows the defacto platform for so many vendors. Like you said, you want the platform that plays well with Office.



CCI |

I think one of the biggest roadblocks to mass Linux adoption is the user friendly obstacles. Look at the war of words between Gnome and Linus over the last few days. There is just no simple, easy-to-use and consistent interface to it.

It is not the matter of image/binary compatiblity, look what Apple has managed to do with OS X. It is the matter of users liking their desktop.

Where I think Microsoft will fail is by trying to provide easy-to-use eye candy as you described to the business users. That is not going to work. Of course they will offer a lighter version but I don’t think the death to their desktop is anywhere near.

Irrelevance and indifference, maybe. But hold on to that tombstone.



Anonymous |

It is interesting to read this, and as last night I was playing with the latest UBUNTU Live CD…I was thinking to myself, as I easily configured my network, mail account, how intuitive, non-bloated clever Operating system, I thought it was….and guess what, it is free. OpenOffice is a great product and so are many of the linux distributions. I am a Small Business Consultant and I sell MS SBS 2003 and I think it is a great product…of course there is much room for improvement, but there always is… but you look at slackware, email solutions, great security features..etc.. that linux can offer, it is a player that will NOT go away… every dog has its day.

JC



utansli |

You might be on to something Vlad, there is a rumor in the works claiming Google is about to purchase Opera.

And the plot thickens….



Anonymous |

Awesome Vlad, just awesome. I’ve forwarded this to my entire team as an early warning of complacency. Stories like this really keep us on our toes.

Thanks for the great work you do.



Vlad |

Active post, eh?

Dear Microsoft, if you have put a hit out of me I regret to disappoint you that I’m in DC so prepare to pay some overtime to your hitman.

Joke aside, I did get a few personal comments asking why I would write such a horrid assesment of what I see.

Before I answer that, I a) don’t work for Microsoft, b) don’t have a big incentive to lie and c) can’t offend any of 0 advertisers on vladville. If you couldn’t tell by the number of spelling mistakes, this is not a business journal.

So why write such a long and extended overview of whats going on behind the scenes, to an audience primarily working in SMB with Microsoft?

“…primarily working in SMB with Microsoft…” has severe disadvantages of giving you tunnel vision in which there is a single vendor and a single way to do things. As I’ve mentioned in Eric Ligman’s webcast, I have a smaller advertising budget by Microsoft. More people have heard of Microsoft than of my own employer. If they didn’t like me, they’d put me out of business in a fraction of the second.

And the very same holds true for your business, regardless of what it is. The single most important key to success in IT business (and any other business) is to take advantage of all your opportunities. You can be a great engineer, but if you can’t sell yourself you’ll starve to death (or at least to a job at McDonalds). If you are a great salesman but poor consultant, you will either starve to death or become very well versed in hiding money before your customers stop payment.

Now my advertising budget is smaller than Microsofts as I mentioned, but also smaller than that of Google, Yahoo, Real, RIM, Oracle and any other company out there. So what have these guys figured out about partnerships that I have not. What do these guys know that I don’t? Why is Sony, Apple, Google and Linux such a big thorn in Microsoft’s behind and I can’t even buy an Xbox?

I challenge you to step out of your comfort zone and look at the trends in technology and business and guide your business to the zone where it has the highest probability of success.

But I could be wrong, I’m sure the spyware business will be around forever… yeah… really…

-Vlad



Ben Gerr, Johannesburg - South Africa |

Open Office has been one of the best hidden secrets in the computer world so if y ou have not seen 2.0 do yourself a favor and hit it today. It is not as broken, slow or useless as the 1.1 used to be. It’s also only 80mb so nothing big there.

I have to commend you Vlad as I have never heard of you before and this link came in the email from a friend. You certainly have an interesting take on this, I commend you on having the balls to publish this type of honest feedback and commentary, especially as someone doing business with Microsoft. We need more people with ethics that are willing to stand up and call it like they see it.

I for one never looked at it from the business perspective of the company contributing code to OSS. I guess I never considered the support costs but boy does it make sense now.

You’ve made a friend today.



amanda |

Do you have a fobia of spell check or do you just choose to write such thought-through essays in the notepad? :)

I really loved this post. Not a regular zealot, are you. A true guru would have slammed down the tombstone and declared Vista dead on arrival while touting a download of alternative-xyz but you put it on Microsoft’s back to prove you wrong… nice move!!!



Anonymous |

Oh how I wish I saw this earlier, you totally made my day. And you’re right on the money – there is a lot more to be accomplished by working together than by encouraging blind greed and selfish competition.

Very nice story, thank you!



Anonymous |

What is even more interesting but not brought up in this article is not that these are emerging and growing threats against Microsoft cash cows but that they are unlike anything Microsoft has ever faced before because these are not corporations about to run out of staff or money.

These are projects run by volunteers, so whatever threat there is to Microsoft it will just grow over time as more is donated and more problems are fixed.

If I were you I would be doing all I can to get informed about these new solutions because I beleive that they, not Microsoft, are the future. After all, Microsoft is trying to make things easier and bigger. Other projects are focusing on speed and stability.

Which would you rather have?



awalsh |

Wow, an honest fan of Microsoft that understands software, development and business. They don’t make many of you, do they?

Very good piece, they ought to print this post down and hand to every PM in big business America, though I’m sure they probably have some pockets that get it.

As the comment above me said, this is not about to go away since it is all volunteer managed, supported and developed.



o.s. |

Right on. Here is something I saw today which further explains Microsoft’s hardship even on the marketing side. Seems like the side effect of them stepping on everyones toes is that everyone is fighting back much harder and with much sharper teeth than in the past:

Microsoft’s challenges in the order they were published are to:

- Explain to corporate customers why they should buy Windows Vista without waiting to purchase new hardware first.
- Publish a definitive set of guidelines on developing Windows applications to reduce buggy software and security flaws–and then enforce it.
- Communicate its intent for entering into the managed-solutions market, as well as which parts of this business it will leave to its partners.



Jess |

I’ll help you with this one: People will switch when Dell sells them a PC that is cheap and has Linux on it. I mean, imagine that, a PC that has all the bells and whistles and apps without a huge markup.

Right now their Dell without an OS / Linux costs more than the system with XP Home.



Anonymous |

In the short term they don’t have to end it, they just have to make people hold out and not sign the SA agreement.

Microsoft is desperate for growth, that growth comes with investments in losing propositions that may one day be cash cows. BCG matrix.

Doesn’t have to be Linux or Google, could be Apple, or any combination thereof. If all the apps are on the web, then the only thing that matters is local video, print and storage drivers.

I think an Xbox 1 could suffice.



sarahintampa.com |

Nice post!

I personally think that Google has plans to put OpenOffice on the web as an online office suite. (http://hyperculture.typepad.com/sarah/2005/11/google_is_worki.html)

The fact that Google is working on Open Office isn’t rumor, it’s fact: http://news.com.com/Google+throws+bodies+at+OpenOffice/2100-7344_3-5920762.html?tag=nefd.lede

Office 12 had better be amazing because once Open Office gets rebranded as Google Office, people will find it, use it, and not pay for the MS product. And by people, I mean non-techies: Moms and Dads; college kids on a budget; SOHOs; Etc.

Should be interesting!



Travel Offers |

Hi I love this comment and it is so good and I am gonna save it. One thing to say the Indepth analysis you have done is greatly remarkable.Who goes that extra mile these days? Well Done :) Just one more suggestion you canget a Translator for your Worldwide Audience .








 

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